"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those instead of parlays. Some of you may not understand how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it appears like. Without a doubt Team A and when it wins then you place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the first team, and if it wins without a doubt double on the second team. With a genuine "if" bet, instead of betting double on the next team, you bet the same amount on the next team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you want to make an "if" bet. "If" bets may also be made on two games kicking off concurrently. The bookmaker will wait before first game is over. If the initial game wins, he'll put the same amount on the next game though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the second bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the second bet cannot be cancelled, even if the second game have not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you should have action on the second game. Because of this, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games you bet overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the next game bet is not an issue. It should be noted, that when both games start at different times, most books won't allow you to complete the second game later. You need to designate both teams once you make the bet.
You can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I would like to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. No matter whether the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 once you lose on the first team. If the first team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. In that case, if the second team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win will be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. In the event that you split however the loser may be the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This type of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you intend to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the identical to if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. The two "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as in the event that you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each one of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Instead of losing $110 once the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 when the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the next mix of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the next combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 rather than $110 once the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it has the advantage of making the risk more predictable, and avoiding the worry concerning which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the rules in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win a lot more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on one shouldn't be made dependent on whether you win another. However, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the point that he is not betting the second game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If truy cập thabet reduce the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that next time someone lets you know that the best way to win would be to bet fewer games. A good winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by successful with a confident expectation in mere two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of which you have no other choice is if you're the best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux so you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account without credit line, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap in time, you pull out your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Needless to say you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a wonderful substitute for the parlay for anyone who is winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the point that we make the second bet only IF one of the propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig no matter how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when one of our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or higher comes in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and when the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it is more likely that the game will under the total. As we have previously seen, when you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The actual possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet than the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely need to win one out from the two. Each of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of the time is not an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a complete increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."