"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those instead of parlays. Some of you might not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it appears like. You bet Team A and IF it wins you then place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet where you bet on the first team, and if it wins without a doubt double on the next team. With a true "if" bet, instead of betting double on the next team, you bet the same amount on the second team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you need to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can also be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait before first game is over. If the first game wins, he will put the same amount on the second game though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is really two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the next bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the second bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you will have action on the second game. Because of this, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap with time, however, the only method to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the next game bet is not an issue. It ought to be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books won't allow you to complete the next game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. No matter whether the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 once you lose on the initial team. If the initial team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" would be $110, and the maximum win would be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As link Hi88 can see, it matters a good deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. In the event that you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This kind of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you intend to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the identical to if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. The two "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also function as same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each one of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Instead of losing $110 once the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 when the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It computes this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the initial combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the second combination of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the next combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller loss of $60 rather than $110 once the first team loses with no decrease in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it has the benefit of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry as to which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the guidelines in an easy to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting using one should not be made dependent on whether or not you win another. However, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he could be not betting the second game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Understand that the next time someone tells you that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by a winner with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of that you have no other choice is if you're the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux which means you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account with no credit line, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a good substitute for the parlay if you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the truth that we make the next bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig no matter how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when one of our combinations comes in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or higher comes in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it really is more likely that the overall game will review the comparatively low total, and when the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will under the total. As we have previously seen, when you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The actual probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the proven fact that they are co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet than the parlay when making our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only need to win one out from the two. Each of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we are in need of is really a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the full total 53 � at the very least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point away from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of the time isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a total increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."