"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those instead of parlays. Some of you may not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and when it wins you then place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a type of "if" bet where you bet on the first team, and when it wins you bet double on the second team. With a genuine "if" bet, instead of betting double on the next team, you bet the same amount on the second team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you wish to make an "if" bet. "If" bets may also be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait until the first game has ended. If the initial game wins, he'll put an equal amount on the next game though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is really two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the second bet cannot be cancelled, even if the second game have not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you should have action on the next game. For that reason, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When 888bet without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only way to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the second game bet isn't an issue. It ought to be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books won't allow you to complete the second game later. You need to designate both teams once you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. No matter whether the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 once you lose on the initial team. If the first team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. In that case, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win will be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. If you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you need to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the identical to if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. Both "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also function as same as in the event that you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You would lose $55 on each one of the bets for a total maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Rather than losing $110 when the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 when the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the next combination of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the second "if" bet offers you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller loss of $60 rather than $110 once the first team loses without reduction in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it has the benefit of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry as to which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the rules in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on one shouldn't be made dependent on whether you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the point that he could be not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Remember that next time someone tells you that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by a winner with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of that you have no other choice is if you are the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux so you left it in the car, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account without credit line, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is an effective substitute for the parlay when you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the point that we make the second bet only IF one of the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig regardless of how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when one of our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or over will come in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it is more likely that the game will beneath the total. As we have previously seen, when you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The specific possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines privately and total are to one another, but the proven fact that they're co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet than the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one out from the two. Each of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we are in need of is really a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the full total 53 � at the very least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point from a win. A BC cover can lead to an over 72% of that time period isn't an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
In comparison with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a complete increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."