"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you might not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, combined with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. Without a doubt Team A and IF it wins then you place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet where you bet on the initial team, and if it wins without a doubt double on the second team. With a true "if" bet, instead of betting double on the next team, you bet the same amount on the second team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you would like to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can even be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait before first game is over. If the initial game wins, he will put an equal amount on the second game though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the second bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the next bet cannot be cancelled, even if the second game has not gone off yet. If nhà cái mocbai , you should have action on the second game. Because of this, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap with time, however, the only way to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the second game bet isn't an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books will not allow you to complete the next game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You can create an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the second team. Whether or not the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the initial team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the utmost win will be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you want to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. Both "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also be the same as in the event that you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Instead of losing $110 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 when the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the next combination of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller lack of $60 rather than $110 once the first team loses without reduction in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it does have the benefit of making the risk more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and simply write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the guidelines in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the point that he is not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Remember that the next time someone lets you know that the best way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by successful with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of that you have no other choice is if you are the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux which means you left it in the automobile, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Needless to say you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is an effective substitute for the parlay in case you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the truth that we make the second bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig regardless of how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when one of our combinations comes in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will go over the comparatively low total, and when the favorite does not cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will under the total. As we have already seen, if you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The specific probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet than the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only need to win one out of your two. Each one of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we are in need of is a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the full total 53 � at the very least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point away from a win. A BC cover can lead to an over 72% of the time isn't an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
When compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a total increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."